MSI 부사장이 말하길, 작년 3분기 이후로 마더보드 및 그래픽카드의 출하량이 감소하기 시작하면서 더이상의 시장확장은 기대할수 없다고 한다. 특히 노트북 출하량이 데스크탑 출하량을 넘어서면서 이러한 부분을 가속하고 있고, 향후 3년간은 4대 마더보드 제조회사(ASUS/기가바이트/MSI/ECS)의 수익이 어느정도 유지될것으로 보이지만 3년이 지난 시점부터는 4대 제조회사중에 한곳이 사라져야 나머지 3개 회사의 수익이 유지될것으로 보이고 그동안은 출하량을 유지하거나 약간의 감소 가능성이 있다고 한다.
[2008년 4대 마더보드 제조사 실적]
ASUS - 2100만장
기가바이트 - 1900만장
MSI - 1600만장
ECS - 2100만장
[원문]
Monica Chen, Taipei; Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES [Friday 9 January 2009]
One of the top-four motherboard makers, Asustek Computer, Gigabyte Technology, Elite group Computer Systems (ECS) and Micro-Star International (MSI), will drop out of the market within the next few years since the limited expansion of the market will not be able to support the growth of the four giants any more, according to Henry Lu, vice president of products at MSI.
Notebook shipments recently hit the critical industry milestone of surpassing those of desktop PCs, pointed out Lu. Additionally, shipments of motherboards and graphics cards have been on the decline since the third quarter of 2008 indicating that the market will not see any further expansion, Lu said. The exit of some second-tier motherboard makers mean the market will be able to support the top-four makers over the next three years, but not much beyond that, Lu predicted.
After the three years, one of the top-four makers will need to be eliminated from the market in order for the other three to remain profitable, said Lu. In the meantime, the makers are likely to see motherboard shipments maintain level or decline slightly.
With demand from Europe and North America dropping plus all the makers have been trying to clear inventory, non of the first-tier motherboard makers achieved their shipment goals in 2008, while some second-tier makers even saw their revenues and shipments from the motherboard segment drop by half, according to industry sources.
Asustek Computer is estimated to have shipped around 21 million motherboards in 2008. Although shipments held level on year, the company did not see any growth in profits due to a decline in ASPs, according to the sources. Meanwhile Gigabyte Technology is said to have shipped around 19 million motherboards in 2008, less than its target of 20 million, the sources said. However, branded shipments grew 14% from 14 million units in 2007 to 16 million units in 2008.
MSI shipped around 16 million motherboards in 2008, according to estimates, far less than goal of 20 million, while branded shipments were only seven million units. However, with the help from notebook and netbook product lines, the company's revenues in 2008 still broke the NT$100 billion (US$3 billion) mark.
Finally, Elitegroup Computer Systems (ECS) shipped around 21 million motherboard in 2008, with around eight million from its branded segment, the industry sources said.